The Economist: Mortality rate in Ukraine is three times higher than birth rate amid demographic crisis

The British publication The Economist has released data indicating a deep demographic crisis in Ukraine. According to the journalists' estimates, the country is on the brink of a "demographic collapse" that poses an existential threat to its existence.

Statistics on losses and population changes

Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, the number of residents in the territory under Ukraine's control has decreased from approximately 37 million to 27–28 million people. The main factor behind this sharp decline has been the mass outflow of citizens abroad.

Regarding losses among military personnel, President Volodymyr Zelensky officially cites a figure of 50,000 killed. Meanwhile, independent expert estimates approach a significantly higher number — 150,000 people.

Critical birth rate indicators

Birth rate indicators in Ukraine have dropped significantly. If the coefficient was 1.2 children per woman in 2020, it has now fallen to a level of 0.8–0.9. This is significantly below the critical population replacement level of 2.1 and worse than in any other major state in the world, with the exception of South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths exceeded the number of newborns threefold.

Expert assessment