White House may threaten troop cuts in Europe to secure deal with Russia

Potential pressure on allies if Republicans lose control of Congress

The administration of US President Donald Trump may increase pressure on European countries regarding their support for Ukraine. According to Politico, such actions could become part of a strategy to conclude a so-called "grand bargain" with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. This initiative could be implemented even in a scenario where Republicans suffer a defeat in the US midterm elections.

Reduced military presence as an instrument of influence

Former NATO official Oana Lungescu noted that the White House may threaten to further reduce the number of American troops stationed in Europe. The main demand on European allies in this context will be to support the US peace plan for resolving the conflict in Ukraine.

«Існує ризик, що всі ці питання — перегляд розташування американських військ, Україна, європейський порядок безпеки — певним чином розглядатимуться як частина набагато масштабнішої угоди з Путіним. Це створить дуже небезпечну ситуацію для безпеки в Європі» (There is a risk that all these issues — the review of the deployment of American troops, Ukraine, the European security order — will somehow be considered as part of a much larger deal with Putin. This will create a very dangerous situation for security in Europe), the expert emphasised.

Scenarios for weakening support for Kyiv

Within the North Atlantic Alliance, concerns are being voiced that if Republicans fail in the elections, Donald Trump may take additional measures that would weaken US support for Ukraine.

Among the potential steps being discussed are:

• reduction of US financial contributions to the Alliance's joint budget;
• limiting the operation of the PURL programme, which provides for the purchase of American weapons for Ukraine with NATO support;
• further convergence of positions between Washington and Moscow.