US on the brink: War with Iran depleted up to 82% of THAAD interceptor stockpiles

The war with Iran has exacerbated the acute problem of air defence shortages in the US Armed Forces. According to expert estimates, even if missile expenditure is halted, returning to December 2025 stockpile levels will not happen before 2030.

Critical warning ignored

CBS News reported on the scale of the problem, citing sources in the US government. As early as December 2025, two months before the start of the conflict with Iran, then Chief of Staff of the US Army General Randy George warned the Pentagon about a critical munitions shortage. He predicted that the situation would remain difficult at least until 2030.

In April 2026, when hostilities were already ongoing, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth dismissed General George from his post.

Scale of combat losses

Combat operations against Iran significantly intensified the depletion of stockpiles. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), at the start of the war, the US had approximately 2,300 Patriot missiles. During the conflict, between 1,050 and 1,430 units were expended, representing up to 61% of the pre-war stockpile.

The situation with the THAAD system is much worse. Of the approximately 355 available missiles, between 190 and 290 were used, meaning up to 82% of stockpiles.

Production plans failed to keep up with demand: in fiscal year 2026, fewer than 500 new Patriot missiles were planned for delivery, while THAAD production was not envisaged at all.

Why stockpiles were depleted earlier

The shortage formed before the start of the war with Iran. CBS News cites the main reasons as:

• munitions supplies to Ukraine;
• expenditures on the defence of Israel;
• limited production capacities of the US defence industry.

Since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine has received approximately 600 Patriot interceptors, although not all of them were written off directly from US stockpiles. In addition, during just 12 days of the war between Israel and Iran in 2025, the US expended approximately 150 THAAD missiles and nearly 80 Patriot missiles.

Strategic risks and official position

CSIS advisor Mark Cancian notes that these two types of missiles will become critically important in the event of a potential US-China conflict.

«Наземні засоби ураження, наприклад Javelin, будуть застосовуватися в обмежених обсягах, оскільки масштаби сухопутних боїв будуть відносно невеликими. Те саме стосується й артилерії. Натомість засоби ППО та ПРО набудуть критичного значення» (Ground strike systems, for example Javelin, will be used in limited quantities, as the scale of ground battles will be relatively small. The same applies to artillery. In contrast, air and missile defence systems will become critically important), the expert explained.

A US official told the channel that restoring stockpiles to December 2025 levels is possible only by 2030, and only if production plans are met on time and no new conflicts arise. At the same time, even the stockpiles that existed in December 2025 were already considered insufficient.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon denies the existence of a shortage. Department representative Sean Parnell called information about munitions shortages false and stated that the US military has sufficient stockpiles.

Production of new missiles requires a long time: orders for Patriot PAC-3 take an average of 3.5 years to fulfil, while THAAD orders take 4 years and 5 months.