Russian energy revenues fall 17% due to reduced output and exports

Economic indicators for Russia's energy sector show a rapid deterioration. Over the first three quarters of 2026, state revenues from oil and gas fell by 17%.

Financial losses despite high barrel prices

This trend has been recorded even though the price of Russian oil reached its highest level in over a decade. According to Reuters, citing data from the Russian Ministry of Finance, tax revenues from hydrocarbon extraction in January–September amounted to 5.47 trillion roubles (equivalent to $64.43bn). For comparison, this figure was 6.61 trillion roubles for the same period last year.

It is worth noting that the oil and gas sector traditionally accounts for around 20% of tax revenues to the federal budget. Forecasts for the current year indicate a budget deficit of 3% of GDP, which is almost double the planned figure.

Urals prices and their impact

According to LSEG data, the price of the Urals grade exceeded $92 a barrel at the end of September. The peak was recorded on 8 April, when the price reached $113.89 a barrel – the highest level since 2013. The price increase is explained by supply disruptions from the Middle East.

However, the high price failed to offset losses from reduced volumes. Last month, Moscow revised its 2026 oil and gas production and export forecasts downwards. The new oil production forecast is the lowest in the past 17 years.

Logistical problems and military risks

One factor behind the export decline has been problems with the operation of the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Traders note that due to security risks following a series of Ukrainian strikes and a shortage of tankers, the port operated below its throughput capacity.

An additional blow to the sector has been regular Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries. This forced enterprises to cut production and caused fuel shortages in several Russian regions.

OPEC statistics and the rouble exchange rate

OPEC data shows that Russian oil production fell by more than 5.6% in August – to 8.718 million barrels per day. For comparison, this figure was 9.240 million barrels in January.

Financial results were also affected by the strengthening of the national currency. In January–August 2026, the rouble was on average 9% stronger against the dollar than in the same period of 2025. As a result, the increase in oil prices in rouble terms was significantly smaller than in currency terms.