Russia has lost the majority of its Black Sea grain exports: seeking alternative routes

Sharp decline in shipment volumes

The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service (FISU) reported that Russia has lost the majority of its Black Sea grain exports. This situation has forced Moscow to actively seek alternative routes for shipping agricultural products abroad.

Statistics indicate a sharp reduction in volumes: in the second ten-day period of September, the Russian Federation shipped only 347,000 tonnes of wheat. For comparison, during the same period in 2025, this figure stood at 1.3 million tonnes.

Attempts to redirect cargo north and east

To compensate for the losses, Moscow is attempting to redirect a portion of grain cargo to ports on the Baltic Sea, to the north of the country, and to the Far East. In particular, the "Ultramar" terminal in Ust-Luga has already begun receiving grain. In September, the railway infrastructure received applications to transport approximately 260,000 tonnes of grain to this facility.

However, according to intelligence estimates, even at maximum capacity, this direction can handle only about 500,000 tonnes per month. For context: the capacity of the Russian Federation's southern ports exceeds 60 million tonnes per year, and last year, nearly 90% of Russia's seaborne grain exports passed through them.

Route via Murmansk: cost and limitations

Murmansk is becoming another option under consideration. Railway transport of the first 40,000 tonnes of grain from the Stavropol Krai has been approved for delivery there. However, this route is more expensive due to the long distance from the main grain regions. The cost of delivery increases by $18–25 per tonne, which can amount to up to $1 million for a single shipment.

Development of the land corridor to China

In the east, the Russian Federation is increasing grain supplies to China via the "New Land Grain Corridor". Volumes in this direction have grown from 2.3 million tonnes in 2024 to 5.8 million tonnes in 2025. This year, the figure is expected to reach approximately 9 million tonnes.

At the same time, this route has significant limitations related to the throughput capacity of the railway and terminals, tariff policy, phytosanitary requirements, and Chinese quotas.

FISU position and international context

«Швидко створити заміну чорноморській системі Росія не може» ("Russia cannot quickly create a replacement for the Black Sea system"), FISU stated. Intelligence emphasised that building alternative logistics requires developed railway infrastructure, elevators, transshipment capacity, insurance, a fleet, and constant buyers.

Previously, Ukraine, together with the Baltic states, strengthened control over the origin of grain to prevent products that Russia may have stolen from the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine from entering international markets.

On 27 September, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadefuhl raised the issue of the grain blockade in the Black Sea during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. However, the negotiations yielded no specific results.