Trump discusses three scenarios with advisers regarding Iran: strikes, sanctions or deal

On 5 November, US President Donald Trump held his first meeting with key national security advisers following the congressional elections. The main topic of discussion was Washington's next steps in relations with Iran.

Three possible scenarios for the development of events

As it has emerged, the White House is currently considering three main strategies:

1. to launch a new series of strikes on Iranian targets;
2. to continue the course of economic strangulation of the regime in Tehran;
3. to conclude a deal that would involve significant concessions to the Iranians.

Diplomatic efforts and mediator proposals

While the US administration deliberates on a decision, diplomatic activity intensified on Thursday. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held a series of phone calls with representatives of regional mediators: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the UAE, Oman and Egypt.

Qatari mediators are continuing to work with the Iranian side and the White House on a draft proposal. The document envisages the implementation of a series of steps over two days to strengthen mutual trust and create the preconditions for a broader agreement.

Key points of this initiative include:

• on the first day, the US must lift the naval blockade and unfreeze a portion of frozen Iranian assets. In response, Iran will officially request the IAEA to send inspectors to destroyed nuclear facilities;
• on the second day, the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened, after which nuclear negotiations will resume, focusing on the issue of Iran's stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.

Contact with Moscow and Tehran's position

Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, who is a key participant in indirect negotiations with the US, met with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on 5 November. This meeting took place a few days after a phone call between Putin and Rezaei, during which the Russian dictator offered to act as a mediator between Washington and Tehran.

Rezaei reported that he had conveyed a message from Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei to Putin. According to him, Putin emphasised his readiness to try to help end the war.

«Ми повідомили пану Путіну, що висунули американцям сім умов щодо дипломатії, і що доти, доки американці не виконають наші сім умов, ні Ормузька протока не буде відкрита, ні жодних переговорів не буде» (We informed Mr Putin that we have put forward seven conditions to the Americans regarding diplomacy, and that until the Americans fulfil our seven conditions, neither the Strait of Hormuz will be opened nor will there be any negotiations), Rezaei stated after the meeting.

Pentagon preparations for possible action

Meanwhile, according to information from a US official, US Central Command is completing preparations for the possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran, although no new order from Washington has been received so far.

One potential signal of plans to resume strikes could be the arrival of a third US Navy carrier strike group in the Middle East.

According to the source, the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its strike group will be in Singapore for several days from Friday, entering the port from the west. They are not expected to reach the area of responsibility of US Central Command before mid-November.