Russia may attack substations in winter to leave Kyiv without power — expert

Russia may target Kyiv power grids in winter

According to Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Centre, Russia may concentrate strikes on high-voltage substations and distribution nodes during the winter period to deprive Kyiv of electricity. In his view, this scenario is realistic and requires urgent measures to strengthen the capital's energy resilience.

Kyiv and Odesa are the most vulnerable cities

Kharchenko emphasised that Kyiv and Odesa remain the most vulnerable due to a lack of sufficient local generation and high dependence on external electricity supplies. During peak consumption hours, Kyiv consumes up to 15% of the country's total electricity, making it a key target for potential attacks.

Necessity of building local generation

«Одной из ключевых долгосрочных задач является строительство и восстановление генерации в Киеве, чтобы город мог обеспечивать себя самостоятельно. В перспективе аналогичную работу необходимо провести и с Одессой» (One of the key long-term tasks is the construction and restoration of generation in Kyiv so that the city can provide for itself independently. In the long term, similar work needs to be carried out in Odesa as well), the expert noted.

Forecast for 2026

The information was released on 10 October 2026. At the same time, Kharchenko stressed that without prompt action to modernise the city's energy infrastructure, the risk of a systemic blackout in the context of an armed conflict remains high.