European countries should not expect that the Democratic Party's victory in the US midterm elections for Congress, scheduled for 3 November, will ease their situation. Even if the Democrats gain a majority, the legislature will have very limited tools to influence President Donald Trump's decisions on foreign and trade strategy.
Risk of conflict escalation
According to Politico, a Republican defeat could conversely increase the risk of new disputes between Washington and European capitals. This could lead to the US imposing even stricter demands on Europe.
There is no consensus among analysts regarding the optimal course of action for European leaders. Some experts advise "showing restraint and not giving the White House a reason to get angry". Others are convinced that Trump "does not need any reasons or justifications to attack Europe".
Kurt Volker's position
Former US Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, who served in this role during the presidency of George W. Bush, believes that the Democrats will be significantly more supportive of Ukraine and the North Atlantic Alliance. However, according to him, they will not have the ability to force Trump to change course.
"They can approve funding, but Trump will simply turn around and say: 'Well, I am not obliged to spend that money'," Volker emphasised.
Expected investigations
The expert does not recommend expecting significant changes in the work of the Trump administration even after the Democrats' victory. He predicts that Congress will intensify investigations into the president, his family, and his family business. Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Elon Musk, Pete Hegseth, and FBI Director Kash Patel will also come under scrutiny.
"Trump will resist to the end, and it will turn into a real circus," Volker added.
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