EU production to become a source of supplies only in a year
The situation with the armament of Ukraine’s Patriot air defence missile systems will not significantly improve for at least 12 months. According to data from Bloomberg, the key factor is the start of actual transfers of interceptor missiles, the production of which has already been localised in Europe.
Specific dates and volumes of deliveries
According to published information, Kyiv plans to receive 600 PAC-2 missiles manufactured in Germany. This batch is expected to arrive during 2027–2028. In parallel, at the end of last month, a new agreement was announced providing for the production of PAC-3 missiles in Poland.
Stock shortages in partner countries
The main obstacle to rapid supply remains the critically low level of European stockpiles of Patriot interceptors. As a result, many Alliance states are refraining from transferring existing weapons to Ukraine, citing the lack of clear guarantees from the US regarding the supply of new batches.
Unrealised initiatives and project complexity
Despite early discussions, the idea of granting Ukraine a US licence for its own production of interceptor missiles has not been realised. Additionally, the programme announced in February, under which five European countries with the largest defence budgets were to create cheap air defence systems, remains stalled.
President Volodymyr Zelensky’s adviser Beskrestnov called this project complex, particularly due to the involvement of a large number of different states in the joint work.
Dependence on foreign components
Flash notes that having the technology to produce individual parts does not guarantee the success of the final product.
«Ми можемо виробляти двигуни, ми можемо виробляти ракети, ми можемо виробляти пускові установки. Але це не означає, що в підсумку все спрацює, бо ми досі залежимо від компонентів, які виробляються в інших країнах», — каже Флеш. (We can produce engines, we can produce missiles, we can produce launchers. But that does not mean that everything will work in the end, because we still depend on components produced in other countries), says Flash.
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