Volunteer Hennadii Druzhenko estimates Ukraine's irrecoverable losses at 200,000–300,000 people

Loss estimates based on local statistics

Ukrainian volunteer Hennadii Druzhenko has formulated his own estimate of Ukraine's irrecoverable losses resulting from the full-scale war, which, according to his calculations, may reach between 200,000 and 300,000 people. He derived these figures using data on fallen servicemen in the city of Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast as a baseline model.

According to Druzhenko, the population of Lozova was approximately 54,000 residents before the start of the full-scale invasion. By counting the names on the local Alley of Heroes in the park, the volunteer found 277 entries for fallen Ukrainian defenders. He notes, however, that the memorial lacks data on military personnel who died in 2026, as well as information on those missing in action.

Considering these gaps, Druzhenko assumes that the actual number of fallen residents of Lozova is at least 300. This means that losses exceed 0.5% of the city's pre-war population.

Methodology for calculating total losses

The volunteer considers Lozova a sufficiently typical Ukrainian city in terms of the proportion of mobilised citizens. Using this local loss indicator and applying it to Ukraine's total pre-war population, which he estimates at 41.5 million people, Druzhenko arrives at a minimum number of 200,000 fallen servicemen.

If missing in action personnel and other categories of irrecoverable losses are added to this figure, the total indicator increases significantly. On this basis, the volunteer defines the range of Ukraine's total irrecoverable losses as 200,000–300,000 people. At the same time, he emphasises that his calculations are based on a series of assumptions and are not the result of scientific research.

The question of acceptable loss limits

In addition to statistical estimates, Druzhenko raises the question of where the limit of human losses lies, beyond which continuing hostilities may lose their meaning.

«Де наш поріг болю, за яким ця війна втратить сенс: півмільйона, мільйон, кілька мільйонів? Чи ми такі ж "принципові", як і наш ворог, і "за ціною не постоїмо"?» (Where is our pain threshold, beyond which this war will lose its meaning: half a million, a million, several million? Are we as "principled" as our enemy, and will we "not stand on price"?) – asks the volunteer.

In his view, society should reflect on who will be left to live in the country after victory if Ukraine loses every hundredth, or even every tenth, man.