Ukraine exported 160 million cubic metres of gas to Hungary and Poland in October

Scale of export deliveries

According to the GTS Operator of Ukraine, 160 million cubic metres of natural gas were exported from the country in October. Hungary was the main destination, receiving 118 million cubic metres of the resource. A further 40 million cubic metres were exported to Poland.

Context of lifting restrictions

The export activity took place against the backdrop of record-high gas prices in Europe. On 7 October, the government lifted the ban on gas exports from Ukraine, which had been in effect since 2022. It is worth noting that in October, the exported resource was predominantly previously imported gas.

Impact on domestic prices

Following the removal of restrictions, the price of gas on the domestic market increased by more than 30%. The price rose from 15,800 to 21,000 hryvnia per thousand cubic metres excluding VAT. Meanwhile, export prices are significantly higher, reaching 45,000–46,000 hryvnia per thousand cubic metres excluding VAT.

Forecasts and risks

Market participants expect that domestic prices will continue to rise during the winter months until they approach the level of export parity, which stands at approximately 48,000 hryvnia per thousand cubic metres including VAT.

Approximately 60 million cubic metres of domestically produced gas have already been contracted for export for November and December. At the same time, concerns are being voiced in the market that gas exports may negatively impact Ukraine's energy balance ahead of a difficult winter.