The Economist forecasts Russia to lose 230,000 troops by end of 2026

According to forecasts by The Economist, Russia could lose a record number of military personnel in 2026 — approximately 230,000 individuals. If these estimates are confirmed, the current year will become the deadliest for the Russian armed forces since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Rosstat data and hacker estimates

The Economist's conclusions are based on information from the database of the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), which was likely stolen by cybercriminals. The hacker group Silent Crow found records of 450,100 war-related deaths in the system. However, the cyberattackers themselves assess the actual losses of Russian military personnel as of 28 August to be higher — at 504,000 individuals.

The data leak also contains demographic indicators: since the start of the invasion, at least 0.9% of Russian men under the age of 60 have died compared to their pre-war population. Among men in the 35–49 age group, this figure exceeded 1%.

Dynamics of increasing losses

The Economist's analysts note that the number of killed Russian military personnel has approximately doubled each year since the start of the full-scale war. If this dynamic is maintained, Russia could lose another approximately 230,000 troops during 2026.

Previously, at the end of October, The Economist estimated the total losses of the Russian Federation army to be in the range of 374,000 to 770,000 individuals.

Reactions to the cyberattack

The hacker groups Silent Crow and "Cyberpartisans BY" reported the breach of the Rosstat system on 1 November. The media outlet Bloomberg verified the structure of the likely stolen database and found no signs of forgery, but was unable to definitively confirm the authenticity of the information.

Rosstat itself acknowledged the fact of the cyberattack but denied the leak of protected information.