Democrats close in on victory in the lower house
The main consequence of the US midterm elections, scheduled for 3 November 2026, could be a shift in the balance of power in Congress. According to analysts, Democrats have a realistic chance of regaining control of the House of Representatives, while the situation in the Senate remains tense. To secure a majority in the lower house, a party must win at least 218 of the 435 seats.
In an update to Silver Bulletin dated 2 November, the authors of the FLIPR model reported that the probability of Democrats gaining control of both chambers has risen to its highest level in the current forecasting cycle. However, experts note that this is merely a statistical estimate based on polling data and other exogenous parameters.
Record early voting turnout
Preparations for the vote are taking place against a backdrop of high voter activity. According to data released by the Associated Press on 30 October, more than 43 million Americans had already cast their ballots early or sent in mail-in ballots five days before the election. This figure exceeds the results at the same stage of the 2022 campaign by nearly 10 million. The statistics cover 47 states and the District of Columbia.
The high level of early voting indicates that parties are actively urging their supporters to turn out for the election. According to Reuters, Republicans hold a financial advantage during the campaign. In contrast, Democrats are counting on voter dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living. The outcome of the vote will be critical for President Donald Trump, as it will determine how easily he can advance his political agenda over the next two years.
Key states in the fight for the Senate
The struggle for control of the upper chamber of Congress is more complex. Reuters highlights the races in Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas, Kansas, Michigan, and Maine as among the most important. It is the results of the campaigns in these states, where the competition is fiercest, that may determine whether Republicans can retain their majority in the Senate.
For now, the main unknown remains the actual turnout and the choices of those voters who have not yet voted. Early activity alone does not reveal the winner, as a voter's party registration does not disclose their vote. The final balance of power will only be known after all ballots are counted, and in close races, determining the results may take quite a long time.
It was previously reported that the US approved a potential sale of 500 missiles for Patriot systems to Ukraine worth $2.1 billion. This decision involves a review procedure in Congress, although specific delivery timelines were not mentioned in the released statement.
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