Kolomoisky forecasts hryvnia to fall to 150 per dollar in event of ceasefire

Scepticism towards the negotiation process

Ihor Kolomoisky commented on the possible consequences of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, describing his stance on the negotiations as «абсолютно байдужою» (absolutely indifferent). According to him, he understands in advance that these discussions will yield no results.

«Ви просто подивіться, що буде далі. Перемир'я — так, добре. Що робити з армією? Це перше питання. Що робити з чоловіками за кордоном? Друге. І головне — третє: чи буде Європа продовжувати давати гроші? Коли почнеться мир?» (Just look at what happens next. A ceasefire — yes, good. What to do with the army? That is the first question. What to do with the men abroad? Second. And the main one — third: will Europe continue to provide money? When will peace begin?), Kolomoisky noted.

He added that in the event of an agreement on a cessation of hostilities, the Russian side would simply «хлопать в ладоши» (clap their hands).

Financial risks and exchange rate forecast

Assessing economic prospects, Kolomoisky drew attention to the loss of key export industries. He emphasised that grain and metallurgical product exports would disappear, and the total export potential would shrink to $15–20 billion. Meanwhile, imports would remain at $70 billion, creating a foreign trade deficit of $50–60 billion per month.

«Як будемо жити? Запасів вистачить лише на рік для підтримки курсу» (How will we live? Reserves will last only one year to support the exchange rate), he stated.

Regarding the exchange rate of the national currency, Kolomoisky forecast a sharp increase. In response to a question about the real exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar, he replied: «Ну, подумайте самі. 60? Я думаю, 150. 150 — це без паніки» (Well, think for yourselves. 60? I think 150. 150 is without panic).

In conclusion, he called for analysing the deeper consequences of any ceasefire agreements.