Herbst: Moscow uses Abu Dhabi talks to weaken US support

Strategy of weakening Western support

Vladimir Putin agreed to hold trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi not to achieve peace, but to give the Donald Trump administration a reason to continue distancing itself from Kyiv. This view was expressed by John Herbst, Director of the Eurasia Center at the Atlantic Council and former US Ambassador to Ukraine, in an article published on the organisation's website.

According to the former ambassador, Putin's strategic goal in Ukraine remains unchanged: to establish political control over it. The main instrument for achieving this goal is weakening Western, primarily American, support for the Ukrainian government.

«Стратегічна мета Путіна в Україні залишається незмінною – встановити над нею політичний контроль, а головним засобом досягнення цієї мети є послаблення західної, передусім американської, підтримки Києва» (Putin's strategic goal in Ukraine remains unchanged – to establish political control over it, and the main means of achieving this goal is weakening Western, primarily American, support for Kyiv), – Herbst emphasised.

Ignoring Washington's initiatives

The expert notes that since spring 2025, Donald Trump has proposed at least six initiatives to end or limit hostilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to each of these proposals, while Putin rejected or effectively blocked all of them.

The last of such initiatives was presented to the Russian leader by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg in October.

Steps that facilitate aggression

Herbst emphasises that in recent weeks, the Trump administration has taken a number of steps which, in his opinion, will make it easier for Russia to continue its aggression and more difficult for Ukraine to defend itself. Among these measures, the former ambassador highlights:

• an agreement on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the US;
• easing of sanctions against the Russian Federation;
• the cessation of the transfer of intelligence data to Ukraine;
• restrictions on Starlink and Starshield;
• consideration of Putin's proposal for a trilateral summit involving Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

«Кремль зустрів усі ці поступки з великим ентузіазмом» (The Kremlin met all these concessions with great enthusiasm), – Herbst stated.

Procedural nature of the meeting

The former ambassador emphasises that Putin has not offered any concession of his own that could bring about a stable peace. Therefore, he views Moscow's agreement to a trilateral meeting in Abu Dhabi merely as a procedural step, rather than evidence of a change in Russia's position.

The limited expectations from the talks, according to Herbst, are also indicated by the composition of the Russian delegation. It will be headed by former Russian Minister of Culture Vladimir Medinsky, who has participated in most negotiations with Ukraine since March 2022, which have yielded no results.

Position on European security

Separately, Herbst drew attention to negotiations on a new architecture of European security. According to him, the Trump administration presented a plan that envisages an important role for NATO in security guarantees. US envoys Witkoff and Kushner discussed this plan with Ukraine and European partners during a visit to Brussels.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin shows no readiness for serious negotiations. Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov stated that the new security system must provide for the withdrawal from NATO of former Warsaw Pact countries and Baltic states.

«Це навряд чи відповідає інтересам США або забезпечить стабільність у Європі» (This is unlikely to serve US interests or ensure stability in Europe), – Herbst believes.

In the former ambassador's opinion, without real pressure on Russia and demands for concessions, the talks in Abu Dhabi are unlikely to bring peace closer. He warns: if the White House continues to be satisfied with symbolic gestures instead of real concessions from Moscow, Putin will not change his course, and the war will not only fail to end but may also intensify.