NATO must provide Ukraine with substantial military aid

If NATO continues to doubt the prospect of Ukraine joining the Alliance, a key step must be providing Ukraine with significant military support so that the country can defend itself and deter Russian aggression. 

This approach is necessary to strengthen Ukraine's position in any future negotiations with Russia, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg emphasised at the World Economic Forum in Davos on 22 January.

Military aid as the foundation of security

Stoltenberg noted that the main guarantee of security for Ukraine is Article 5 of NATO's collective defence. However, he said that Alliance members have the right to determine independently which territories will be covered by this article. He cited historical examples, such as East Germany, for which no security guarantees were offered, and the situation with Japan, for which the US offered guarantees without taking into account the Kuril Islands, which are occupied by Russia. Therefore, in his view, Article 5 could be applied to Ukraine, excluding the territories temporarily controlled by Russia.

Past mistakes and the outlook for military support

Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged that one of the West's serious mistakes was the insufficient military aid provided to Ukraine between 2014 and 2022. He recalled that during that period, NATO rejected proposals to supply lethal weapons, fearing that this might provoke Russia. At the same time, US President Donald Trump decided to supply weapons to Ukraine, which, according to Stoltenberg, played an important role.

The role of military aid in negotiations

Speaking about possible negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, Stoltenberg noted that ending the war between these countries successfully requires leverage over Russia. Military aid to Ukraine is such a lever. He emphasised that only with sustained military support from the US and Europe can Ukraine secure conditions in negotiations that will lead to a just and stable peace.

Conclusions for the future

Stoltenberg concluded that the main element that can influence Russia in negotiations is the bravery of Ukrainian servicemen and the weapons provided by the West. He is confident that if the West continues to support Ukraine, this support will change Russia's calculations and achieve a peace that is just and long-lasting.