7 reasons for Crimea's return to Ukraine

Former Crimea tourism minister Alexander Liev is convinced that the peninsula will return to Ukraine within the next decade and he sees seven compelling reasons for this.

«Семь причин, почему Крым вернется в Украину ближайшие 10 лет. (Seven reasons why Crimea will return to Ukraine in the next 10 years.)

1. The political reason. The world does not recognise the "referendum". The status of unrecognised Crimea will exhaust Russia. Every Russian will feel this on their own skin.

2. The geopolitical reason. The issue of the Black Sea space cannot be considered without understanding the interests of Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria. So far, Putin has managed to neutralise these countries situationally. However, their interests are global. In the long term, Turkey's discomfort with the annexation of Crimea, reinforced by the support of the Crimean Tatar people, may play a significant role. The pace of Turkey's economic growth and its political maturation on the world stage will force others to take it seriously.

3. The logistical reason. Promising sea ports have turned into coastal shipping hubs, rail links have been severed, and air traffic operates only towards Russia. The Crimeans themselves have not yet fully felt the impact of all this. Living under such conditions is a high price for "Putin's manna from heaven". The story about the Kerch Bridge no longer even amuses anyone. There is no solution to this problem.

4. The energy reason. This concerns water, electricity and coal... All of this has already brought the economy of Crimea's agribusiness, chemical industry and entire production sector to its knees. Without Ukraine, this issue is unsolvable. Desalination of the sea, a local nuclear power plant and other fantasies are far from reality; even their proponents speak of 10-15 years for "implementation", while people's lives are happening right now.

5. The economic reason. The foundation of the peninsula's economy for the last 50 years has been agriculture, tourism, the chemical industry and transit. These sectors have been degrading for a year now. Stagnation is at the doorstep. Replacing them solely with military bases is feasible in only three or four cities. Maintaining the rest of the territory and its residents will become a noticeable "headache" for the Russian economy as early as this winter.

6. The demographic reason. The highest percentage of pensioners in Ukraine is in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. It was their dreams of the USSR that led the peninsula into Putin's jaws. The growth in the percentage of working-age, young population is entirely natural. These are people born in Ukrainian Crimea. Those who have been most affected by the annexation. Their voice will be decisive in the next five years.

7. The mental reason. Crimeans are not Russians at all. And it is not a matter of nationalities. Over 25 years, needs and habits of civil freedom have formed. Freedom of speech. Freedom of choice. Freedom of movement. The pain of lost freedom is currently suppressed by propaganda scare tactics: "be grateful it is not a war". But this fairy tale will not last long. Already, sensible Crimeans are comparing the course of events in Crimea not with the East, but with the SOUTH - with Kherson and Odesa regions - and many things are becoming clear regarding both prospects and the current bottom (read: rock bottom)...", the former minister shared these thoughts on his Facebook page.