WMO warns: 2026 El Niño could become the strongest in 40 years

The El Niño climate phenomenon is approaching the peak of its activity. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), between November 2026 and January 2027, the surface water temperature in the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean could be 3.8°C higher than average. Such warming is capable of significantly changing weather conditions in many countries.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasised that the expected intensity of the phenomenon could exceed the levels recorded by meteorologists over the past 40 years. El Niño will likely reach its peak strength at the end of 2026, although the weather anomalies associated with it may persist even after the peak has passed.

Global risks: droughts and floods

The WMO's latest seasonal forecast indicates a threat to the usual balance of temperatures and precipitation. Some regions may face a prolonged moisture deficit, while others may experience intense downpours and flooding. Increased heatwaves are also expected across large areas.

To assess the scale of the changes, it is worth noting that El Niño is identified by a rise in the surface temperature of the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean of at least 0.5°C relative to the average level. Current forecasts predict a deviation significantly greater than this threshold.

Mechanism of impact on climate

El Niño is the warm phase of the natural ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) cycle. The warm and cold phases of this process alternate irregularly, usually at intervals of two to seven years.

Under normal conditions, trade winds push the heated surface waters of the Pacific Ocean from South America towards Australia. During El Niño, these currents weaken and sometimes reverse. As a result, cold deep waters rise to the surface less intensively, and excess heat accumulates in the equatorial zone. Such processes affect the movement of air masses and can change the nature of the weather far beyond the Pacific region.

Climatologists distinguish three states of the ENSO cycle:

• El Niño: warming of surface waters in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Trade winds weaken or change direction. It usually becomes drier in Indonesia, while precipitation increases over the tropical areas of the Pacific Ocean.
• La Niña: cooling of the ocean surface in the same areas and strengthening of the trade winds. This is often accompanied by heavier rainfall in Indonesia and a decrease in precipitation over the central part of the tropical Pacific Ocean.
• Neutral state: temperature readings are close to average, with no clear signs of either opposing phase.

Forecast for specific regions

WMO experts described the likely weather trends for November 2026 to January 2027 for different parts of the world.

Europe will experience a predominantly elevated temperature background. The amount of atmospheric precipitation may also slightly exceed the usual seasonal norms.

Africa will experience warming in most territories. Increased rainfall is expected in the Horn of Africa region, while parts of the southern continent may suffer from a moisture deficit.

Asia will receive temperatures above the climate norm across significant areas. The probability of heavier precipitation increases in regions from the Arabian Peninsula through Central Asia to the eastern part of the continent.

North America may have temperature values exceeding the averages for the corresponding period in most areas.

South America will face the probability of dry weather in northern territories. In contrast, increased precipitation is forecast in certain areas of the continent's south-east.

For Australia, weather is expected to be predominantly warmer than usual. A certain increase in precipitation is also not ruled out.

Can the damage be reduced?

Despite the seriousness of the forecasts, the WMO emphasises that an extremely strong El Niño does not necessarily lead to a large-scale humanitarian crisis. Celeste Saulo explained that modern observation methods, scientific calculations, and early warning mechanisms for the population allow for preparation for potential dangers.

States have the opportunity to take measures to protect people, their property, and sources of income before adverse weather conditions set in. Particular attention, according to the WMO head, needs to be paid to communities that are most at risk of suffering from climate change.

Government representatives and local communities are urged not to delay preparation and to use available forecast information to reduce potential economic and humanitarian losses. The organisation emphasises that in many regions, time for preventive measures still remains, but the effectiveness of these actions will depend on timely decisions.

It is worth noting that meteorologists expect a very powerful El Niño phenomenon during the autumn and winter of 2026–2027. According to NOAA forecasts, the probability of a strong El Niño exceeds 90%, and in certain months, the event may reach historically high intensity. Its impact may be felt in different parts of the world — from the Americas and Europe to Asia and Australia.