US officials believe the Abu Dhabi meeting will not lead to a final agreement on ending the war, but will help clarify the parties' positions. The main barrier remains the unresolved territorial issue.
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The meeting in Abu Dhabi is unlikely to conclude with the signing of a final agreement on ending Russia's war against Ukraine. However, according to US officials, the meeting may help clarify the parties' positions and lay the foundation for further diplomatic steps.
Radio Free Europe journalist Alex Raufoglu reported on social media platform X that the main goal of the current negotiations is to identify unresolved disagreements and prepare the ground for the next rounds of dialogue. In Washington, expectations are described as "cautious optimism". It is assumed that, depending on the outcome of the Abu Dhabi meeting, additional consultations involving Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky may be organised in the near future.
Later, Raufoglu added that US representatives see a "real chance" of achieving "serious progress" during these negotiations.
US officials note that Russia still maintains distrust towards European countries, accusing them of breaking the previous agreement discussed in Istanbul. Washington is trying to convince Moscow that the US remains aligned with Europe and NATO. In addition, the American side seeks to move from a trilateral negotiation format to a broader multilateral dialogue involving European partners.
Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, NATO, the European Union, and Ukraine are to be involved in discussions on security guarantees and the post-war security architecture of Europe.
The territorial issue remains one of the key obstacles to reaching an agreement. Russia continues to demand the transfer of the entire Donetsk region to it, while Ukraine insists on maintaining the current line of contact.
US officials claim that both sides demonstrated some flexibility during closed discussions. At the same time, in Washington, it is believed that territorial issues and future security agreements need to be considered in parallel, but ultimately agreed upon together.
According to Raufoglu, security guarantees are to become the central topic of the negotiations. Washington has asked Russia to agree to a mechanism for protecting Ukraine that would provide guarantees similar to Articles 4 and 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
At the same time, any commitments from the US will ultimately depend on the decision of President Donald Trump. One US official also emphasised that the main financial burden of security guarantees should be borne by Europe.
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