Germany becomes Russia's main target: intelligence warns of new wave of threats to NATO

Heads of three German intelligence agencies informed parliament during a briefing that Russia has transitioned to a new, more dangerous phase of its so-called "shadow war" against Europe. According to them, Moscow is preparing attacks on the territories of North Atlantic Alliance member states.

New Kremlin strategy amid a stagnant front

Intelligence officials note that the intensification of such operations is driven by the lack of progress in the war against Ukraine. Russian special services, in particular, may target transport and communication infrastructure, defence enterprises, military facilities, and other companies in European Union countries.

Sinan Selen, head of the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, stated that the recent drone incident at Leipzig airport could be just the "tip of the iceberg".

«Навіть сьогодні Росія готова прийняти потенційні жертви серед цивільного населення, а також займається навмисним плануванням актів насильства», – сказав він. (Even today, Russia is ready to accept potential casualties among the civilian population and is engaged in the deliberate planning of acts of violence), he said.

Berlin viewed as the main adversary

Selen also noted that the Russian side is expanding the scale of its operations and refining its recruitment methods. Martin Jaeger, head of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), named Germany as Russia's main target outside the immediate combat zone.

According to him, Moscow perceives Germany as its main adversary, and the threat to the country is "direct, comprehensive, and specific".

Jaeger also warned of the risk that Russian provocations could lead to a larger conflict between Russia and NATO. At the same time, he called on Germany to strengthen deterrence and clearly demonstrate its readiness to defend itself in the event of escalation.

«Навіть сьогодні Росія готова прийняти потенційні жертви серед цивільного населення, а також займається навмисним плануванням актів насильства», – пояснив Єгер. (Even today, Russia is ready to accept potential casualties among the civilian population and is engaged in the deliberate planning of acts of violence), Jaeger explained.

Risk of limited operations in the Baltic

According to NATO assessments, Russian armed forces may be ready for a full-scale conflict with the Alliance by 2029, but likely not earlier, especially if the war against Ukraine continues. However, this does not rule out attempts by Moscow to carry out smaller provocations to test NATO's unity.