Knaus: European politicians do not believe in Ukraine's EU accession within the next decade

Assessment of integration prospects

Ukraine is unlikely to become a member of the European Union within the next decade. This conclusion was drawn by Gerald Knaus, head of the European Stability Initiative think tank and an expert on EU enlargement, in a conversation with Reuters.

According to the expert, his conclusions are based on direct contacts with European officials. He emphasised that in many European countries, politicians do not expect Ukraine to join the Union within the next ten years.

«Поїздите країнами — і зрозумієте, що в багатьох із них політики не очікують, що Україна вступить до ЄС навіть через 10 років» (Travel around the countries and you will understand that in many of them, politicians do not expect Ukraine to join the EU even in 10 years), Knaus noted.

Risks to public motivation

The analyst warned that any signs of insufficient resolve on the part of the EU regarding support for Ukraine's accession could have negative consequences. In his view, such signals are capable of demoralising Ukrainian society, which none of the European partners wish to see.

Objective obstacles on the path to membership

The Reuters material notes that the integration process is lengthy even under favourable circumstances. Candidate countries need years to conduct negotiations and reform legislation to meet the political, democratic, and economic standards of the European Union.

In Ukraine, this path is complicated by additional factors. Key obstacles include uncertainty regarding the end of the war, deeply rooted corrupt practices, and the significant scale of the country, which creates additional challenges for integration.

Knaus's position was confirmed by a senior European diplomat, who told Reuters that Ukraine's accession to the EU is not a realistic scenario for the next few years.