EU diplomats discuss response scenarios for potential large-scale Russian hybrid attack

A new approach to threat assessment is taking shape in the capitals of European Union member states. As reported by Politico, citing sources among European diplomats and officials, official Brussels is increasingly seriously considering the risk of a large-scale Russian hybrid attack that could be accompanied by fatalities.

Closed consultations without electronics

Over the past few weeks, ambassadors of all 27 EU member states have held a series of closed negotiations dedicated to the possibility of a large-scale attack by the Russian Federation. According to sources, the meetings took place in an extremely restricted format: participants left their mobile phones and assistants outside the negotiation room.

Leipzig as a warning

One unnamed EU diplomat emphasised the need to be prepared for a serious incident. He drew attention to the event that took place in early August, when Russian drones attacked aircraft at Leipzig airport. German authorities have already recognised this action as an attempt at sabotage by Russia.

«Ми маємо бути готові до чогось серйозного. На жаль, Лейпциг показав нам, що дуже серйозний інцидент, який спричиняє численні жертви, не виключений» (We must be ready for something serious. Unfortunately, Leipzig has shown us that a very serious incident causing numerous casualties is not ruled out), the diplomat stressed.

Casualties are inevitable if the situation does not change

Another representative of EU institutions expressed concern that the fact that fatalities have been avoided so far is largely due to chance.

«Враховуючи масштаби та масштаби дій Росії, рано чи пізно це станеться і жертви неминучі. Чиста вдача, що їх поки що немає» (Given the scale and scope of Russia's actions, sooner or later this will happen and casualties are inevitable. It is pure luck that there have been none so far), the official stated, according to Politico.

Preparation of specific response scenarios

During the closed discussions, European diplomats focused on the practical aspects of countering new Russian provocations. The key topics were:

• deployment of special emergency response teams;
• mechanisms for financial assistance to a country that may suffer from an attack;
• communication protocols between EU institution leaders in the event of a crisis.

Thus, the EU is moving from the stage of simple risk assessment to the development of specific action plans in the event of a hybrid attack scenario with large-scale consequences.