ISS, Kuleba, Trump or Carney could win 2026 Nobel Peace Prize

ISS, Kuleba, Trump or Carney could win 2026 Nobel Peace Prize
ISS, Kuleba, Trump or Carney could win 2026 Nobel Peace Prize

ISS — a symbol of global unity

Håkon Hjerlov, Director of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, whose predictions are considered the most authoritative, has identified the key candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. The expert named the International Space Station (ISS) as the main favourite.

According to Hjerlov, the organisation managing the station is a rare example of global cooperation. This is particularly relevant in a context where multilateral mechanisms are being dismantled and countries are increasingly focusing on their own interests.

Ukrainian human rights defender and international initiatives

The list of candidates also includes Ukrainian children’s rights defender Mykola Kuleba and the organisation Save the Children. Other nominees include the Sudanese volunteer aid network "Emergency Response Rooms" and the Committee to Protect Journalists. The last two years have been the deadliest for reporters in nearly 45 years of monitoring.

A joint nomination was received by the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court (ICC). The institution is criticised, among other things, for issuing arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and Benjamin Netanyahu. Donald Trump has long opposed the ICC, and in July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a campaign against the court. In the same month, the ICC’s chief prosecutor was removed from office following allegations of sexual harassment.

Trump’s chances and reaction to his actions

The American president does not hide his desire to receive the award and has again made the list. However, his candidacy may be complicated by the start of the war against Iran in February, in which the US acted together with Israel.

«Я навіть не думаю, що його власні прихильники повірили б, що він може отримати премію зараз, враховуючи, що він застряг у тому, що виглядає як нескінченна війна в Ірані» (I don't even think his own supporters would believe he could win the prize now, given that he is stuck in what looks like an endless war in Iran), said Sean Davis, senior analyst at the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.

An additional complication became a gesture by 2025 laureate María Corina Machado. The Venezuelan opposition figure symbolically handed her prize to Trump a few days after US troops removed Nicolás Maduro from power.

Confrontation with Canada

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has drawn attention by openly confronting Trump, particularly on the issue of tariffs.

«Трамп буде незадоволений, хоч би хто отримав Нобелівську премію. Якщо її отримає Карні, відносини з Канадою стануть ще напруженішими» (Trump will be unhappy no matter who wins the Nobel Prize. If Carney wins it, relations with Canada will become even more strained), believes Nelson Weisman, a professor at the University of Toronto.

Voting details and context

The Norwegian Nobel Committee will announce the laureate’s name on 9 October in Oslo. This year, 287 nominations were received, with slightly more than a quarter of them being organisations. The prize amount is 12 million Swedish kronor, which is approximately 1.2 million dollars.

Mykola Kuleba served as the Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights from 2014 to 2021. Following the start of the full-scale invasion, his charity "Save Ukraine" has been working to return Ukrainian children who were deported or forcibly taken from occupied territories by Russia.

Ukrainians are not new to the Nobel Committee’s attention. In 2022, the Peace Prize was awarded to the Ukrainian Center for Civil Liberties, together with the Russian human rights organisation "Memorial" and Belarusian human rights defender Ales Bialiatski.

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