ISW forecasts intensified Russian sabotage activity in Poland during winter 2026-2027

Institute for the Study of War forecast

According to reporting by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian side may significantly intensify sabotage operations and provocations on Polish territory during the winter period of 2026–2027. Analysts identify railway and logistics infrastructure, as well as routes through which Western aid reaches Ukraine, as potential targets for such actions.

Security experts' assessment

On 16 October, former head of the Polish National Security Bureau Jacek Siewiera warned of a possible significant increase in the number of hybrid operations in Europe during the winter. In his words, among the risks, one should consider air strikes on infrastructure, administrative buildings, and civilian facilities. The use of unmanned aerial vehicles is also not ruled out.

Polish government reaction

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, commenting on these warnings, emphasised that the intelligence services of Poland, Ukraine, and allies are noting signs of a possible escalation of the situation up to Christmas Eve. Tusk stated that Moscow may intensify sabotage attempts. Among specific targets, he highlighted transport corridors for gas, oil, and food heading to Ukraine, as well as logistics and railway infrastructure near the Polish-Ukrainian border.

In addition, the Polish prime minister suggested that these actions could be an attempt by Moscow to test Warsaw's reaction to possible provocations.

Kremlin's strategic goals

Analysts believe that the Kremlin expects sabotage in European countries to complicate the logistics of Western aid to Kyiv. Such actions also aim to divert the attention of Ukraine's partners from supporting the Ukrainian army.