Criminal threat and decline in prosperity
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has published data indicating a deterioration of the criminal situation in the temporarily occupied territories. According to the intelligence agency's assessment, the standard of living for the local population continues to decline, and the Kremlin views these issues as risks to its control over the seized regions.
Among the key issues posing security threats, the GUR highlights the illegal circulation of weapons and explosives, alcohol abuse among Russian military personnel, and street brawls and beatings. A separate trend is the increase in cybercrime and theft of financial funds received by the occupation administrations from the Russian budget.
Socio-economic crisis and pressure on the population
Residents of the occupied regions are under constant pressure. This is linked to the strengthening of the counter-intelligence regime, the threat of violence from Russian military personnel, and repression by law enforcement agencies. These factors significantly deepen the negative attitude of the civilian population towards the occupation authorities.
The situation is further complicated by a critical deterioration in socio-economic conditions. There is an acute shortage of jobs, food products, medicines, fuel, and essential goods in the seized territories. Against the backdrop of growing poverty and destruction, the population continues to leave the regions.
Information policy and internal control
To maintain the loyalty of residents, the Russian side is attempting to intensify the spread of propagandistic narratives. The focus is on so-called socio-economic projects and programmes aimed at increasing the birth rate. In parallel, the occupation administration is taking measures to restrict residents' access to alternative sources of information and communication channels, particularly those classified by Russian authorities as linked to "foreign agents".
The Kremlin is also preparing to strengthen oversight of the activities of occupation administrations and collaborators holding positions in illegally created governing bodies. According to GUR data, Moscow does not fully trust even the most pro-Moscow representatives of local authorities.
Management of occupation processes
Previously, Ukrainian intelligence reported that the Kremlin had appointed Marat Khusnullin as the new curator of the occupied territories. However, according to GUR information, actual control over the seized regions is exercised by a shadow special group comprising representatives of Russian intelligence agencies and law enforcement bodies.
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