Baltic states may overtake Poland in NATO defence spending

Baltic states may overtake Poland in NATO defence spending
Baltic states may overtake Poland in NATO defence spending

Poland's position as the leading country in the North Atlantic Alliance in terms of the share of defence spending in gross domestic product may be under threat. According to estimates by the publication Rzeczpospolita, leadership could shift to the three Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia—as early as 2026.

Financial indicators and forecasts

In the current 2025, Warsaw is directing approximately 4.3% of GDP towards defence needs. For the following year, 2026, an increase in this indicator to 4.5% is planned. Meanwhile, the Baltic countries have a clear strategy: by 2027, they intend to spend at least 5% of their GDP on defence, which will give them an advantage over Poland.

An analysis of the Polish budget indicates a certain stagnation in nominal values. Defence spending for 2027 is budgeted at 198 billion zloty. This is 2 billion zloty less than what is provided for 2026. Given the expected economic growth of approximately 4%, the share of defence spending in GDP will automatically decrease.

Defence minister's position

Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz noted that actual spending may be higher than planned. He explained that purchases made through the European SAFE instrument are exempt from value-added tax, which affects the final cost of programmes.

Dynamics in other alliance member states

Germany is also demonstrating ambitious plans: taking the special fund into account, Berlin plans to direct almost 140 billion euros to defence. This will amount to over 3% of GDP, which will be a record figure for the country since the end of the Cold War.

Finland will increase its defence budget by approximately 600 million euros, bringing it to 7 billion euros. The Czech Republic, in turn, plans to maintain the level of defence spending at the 2% of GDP mark.

The situation in other regional countries remains ambiguous. Slovakia and Hungary have not yet announced significant increases in their defence budgets. As for Sweden and Romania, their specific plans for security spending have not been disclosed at this time.

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