Earth's geomagnetic field to calm down on 6 October, activity to rise only before dawn

On Tuesday, 6 October, Earth's geomagnetic field is expected to calm down after several days of heightened activity. According to forecasts, a noticeable disturbance is anticipated only before dawn, while indicators will remain low for the rest of the day.

Data from the US Space Weather Center

The US Space Weather Prediction Center published an assessment of the magnetosphere's state for 6 October on 4 October. The probability of the geomagnetic field entering an active state is 35%. The chances of a minor magnetic storm are estimated at 20%, a moderate one at 5%, and a strong or extreme one at just 1%.

According to the same forecast, the planetary Ap index is expected to reach a value of 12.

Expected dynamics of indicators

In Kyiv time, the highest activity level of the day is expected between 03:00 and 06:00. During this period, the Kp index will reach 3.67. Immediately after, from 06:00 to 09:00, the calmest period will occur, with the indicator dropping to just 2 points.

The subsequent dynamics will be as follows:

• From 09:00 to 18:00, the index will remain at 2.33.
• In the evening, from 18:00 to midnight, the value will rise slightly to 2.67.
• In the first hour of the day, from midnight to 03:00, an indicator of 2.33 is also forecast.

Overall assessment of the situation

Thus, throughout the day, the indicator will not exceed 3.67 points, and for most of the time it will remain within the 2–2.7 range. This means it is still far from the level of a magnetic storm.

It is worth noting that warnings about magnetic storms help control risk factors for heart attacks and strokes on the days preceding such solar phenomena.