Russia may be preparing a large-scale campaign of strikes against Ukraine's energy sector facilities in the pre-winter period. The New York Times reported this, citing a document that the Ukrainian side presented to international partners as an intercepted enemy combat plan. In this material, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are highlighted as priority targets. Meanwhile, NYT journalists noted that they were unable to independently verify the authenticity of the provided document.
Threat to light, heat and water
According to a summary of the NYT publication released by Ukrainian News, the alleged strategic plan envisages the use of up to 1,000 missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles and aerial bombs against energy facilities. The list of potential targets includes substations, power plants, boiler houses and water infrastructure. The document mentions the goal of reducing electricity and heating supply volumes in the three specified cities by 90%. It is worth noting that these figures describe the stated objective of the probable campaign, not guaranteed consequences of future strikes.
Ballistic missile defence challenges
A separate aspect remains the effectiveness of air defence systems in protecting cities from ballistic missiles. The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine identifies PAC-3 interceptors for Patriot systems as the most effective tool for countering Russian ballistic missiles. The department emphasises the critical need to accelerate the supply of such munitions by partners.
The shortage of interceptors complicates the protection of critical infrastructure. However, available data does not confirm claims of complete exhaustion of Patriot missile stocks in Ukraine. Also, information about the probable plan does not provide grounds to consider the disconnection of cities from energy carriers for a month as an inevitable scenario.
The actual consequences of new shelling will depend on a complex of factors: the effectiveness of air defence operations, the scale of damage inflicted, the availability of backup power and the speed of network restoration. Therefore, assessments of potential threats must be clearly separated from the already established consequences of previous attacks.
Context
It was previously reported that Ukraine appealed to 40 countries with a request to urgently transfer missiles for Patriot systems. This referred to the supply of munitions from partner stocks in exchange for future contracted deliveries.
It is also known about a massive ballistic attack on Kyiv and the Kyiv region on the night before 14 October. The strikes damaged energy and civilian infrastructure, causing power supply disruptions.
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