IMF: Global economy at the edge of resilience due to depleted oil reserves and debt

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the global economy is approaching the critical limit of its resilience. The Fund cites the depletion of strategic oil reserves, rising public debt, and the potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East as the main risk factors. Although the initial consequences of the energy shock have been mitigated, governments' capacity to support the economy is shrinking, creating a threat of new shocks.

Forecast update: growth does not guarantee safety

In the October edition of the World Economic Outlook report, the IMF slightly raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 — from 3.0% to 3.1%. A figure of 3.4% is expected for 2027. According to the Fund's calculations, global inflation will reach 4.7% in 2026 and fall to 4.1% the following year. However, experts emphasise: even a positive revision of the figures does not eliminate the threats. High energy prices, expensive credit, and strained budgets are limiting states' ability to effectively counter the next wave of crises.

Warning from IMF leadership

IMF Economic Advisor Silvia Turreiro warned that the resilience of the global economy is reaching its limits. Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called on governments to reduce deficits, restore financial reserves, and stop postponing necessary decisions. In her words, additional blows to energy infrastructure, cyberattacks, and extreme weather events could accelerate inflation growth and disrupt international supply chains.

Outlook for the UK and the US

Regarding the United Kingdom, the IMF raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.3%, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than the June estimate. The forecast for 2027, conversely, has been lowered from 1.3% to 1.2%. In the first quarter, the British economy grew by 0.6%, and in the second — by 0.5%, driven in part by investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Meanwhile, inflation in the country will remain high: 3.3% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027.

For the United States, the Fund forecasts stable GDP growth at 2.3% over both years. The American economy is currently withstanding energy shocks thanks to the redirection of oil flows around the Strait of Hormuz and the active use of strategic reserves. However, oil reserves in the US have already fallen to their lowest levels in the last decade, and further fuel price increases may intensify inflationary pressure on consumers.

Risks of an overheated AI market and recommendations

The IMF also points to the threat associated with the overheating of the artificial intelligence market. A sharp revaluation of technology companies could trigger a stock market crash, a reduction in investments, and a deterioration in lending conditions. High interest rates and a significant volume of public debt will amplify the negative consequences of such a shock.

The Fund recommends that central banks refrain from excessive rate hikes in response to short-term price spikes, but maintain readiness to tighten monetary policy in the event of sustained inflation acceleration. Governments need to reduce budget imbalances and restore reserves that were spent on supporting the economy and compensating for the effects of energy shocks.