KIIS: Trust in Zelensky surges to 57% amid external pressure

Dynamics of indicators over two weeks

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published the results of a public mood monitoring survey, which demonstrates a significant change in citizens' attitude towards the head of state. According to the press release, the level of trust in Volodymyr Zelensky rose from 43% to 57% against the backdrop of the so-called "diesel deal" and increased pressure from the US.

The study was conducted from 8 to 16 October. Analysts divided the sample into two segments for comparison: responses received on 8–9 October (before the key events) and data collected on 10–16 October (after the start of external pressure).

During the first two days of the poll, 43% of respondents expressed trust in the president, while 52% expressed distrust. After the change in circumstances, the situation changed radically: 57% expressed trust, and 39% expressed distrust.

Methodology and statistical parameters

Sociologists emphasise that the sample sizes in the two periods differed. For the first segment (8–9 October), 274 people were surveyed, with a sampling error of 7.7%. In the second segment (10–16 October), 757 respondents participated, and the error decreased to 4.6%.

The overall survey covered 1,031 adult Ukrainians in all regions under government control. The total sampling error does not exceed 4%. The study included internally displaced persons from occupied territories, but did not survey residents of temporarily occupied areas or citizens who left the country after 24 February 2022.

The question was phrased as follows: "Наскільки Ви довіряєте чи не довіряєте Володимиру Зеленському?" (How much do you trust or distrust Volodymyr Zelensky?). Respondents were offered four response options, ranging from "do not trust at all" to "trust completely". The position of president was not mentioned in the text of the question.

Expert explanation: the rally-around-the-flag effect

KIIS notes that historically, trust levels in the first days of polls are often slightly lower than in subsequent days, so part of the difference may be methodological. However, such discrepancies were significantly smaller previously than this time.

Sociologists believe that the most likely cause of the surge is the "rally-around-the-flag effect". This is a phenomenon where, under external pressure, society more intensely supports its leader.

General survey results

Over the entire period, 54% of Ukrainians trust the president, while 41% do not trust him. The trust balance stands at +13%.

Among those who trust, 22% choose the option "trust completely", and 32% — "rather trust". In the group of those who do not trust, 24% answer "do not trust at all", and 17% — "rather do not trust".

For comparison: at the end of August and the beginning of September, the indicators were identical. This indicates that the overall level of trust has remained virtually unchanged over the past month.