ISW: Ukraine's Vivaldi operation inflicted a defeat on Russia, exceeding official estimates

ISW: Ukraine's Vivaldi operation inflicted a defeat on Russia, exceeding official estimates
ISW: Ukraine's Vivaldi operation inflicted a defeat on Russia, exceeding official estimates

ISW analysis: actual gains exceed official statistics

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated in a report dated 8 October that Ukrainian forces achieved greater success during the "Vivaldi" operation north of Lyman than was publicly announced. According to the analysts, this campaign effectively blocked Russian intentions to encircle the so-called "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast.

Commander of the 3rd Army Corps Andrii Biletsky reported that during the first three phases of the operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated 176 square kilometres of territory from the occupiers. However, ISW experts, citing information from Russian military blogs, suggest that the actual scale of the liberated lands may have been even larger, although they do not provide a specific figure.

Operational defeat of the Russian grouping

According to the institute's assessment, the actions of Ukrainian forces not only prevented Russia from capturing or bypassing Lyman but also completely eliminated the Russian salient north of the city. This constituted an operational defeat for the Russian grouping, which was intended to facilitate the encirclement of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka.

Now, the Russian command will have to revise its offensive plans in Donetsk Oblast. For repeated attempts to encircle Sloviansk, Russian forces may need to restore their combat capability and recapture lost positions.

Threat to Kostiantynivka persists

Meanwhile, ISW analysts emphasise that the operation did not eliminate the threat to Kostiantynivka. Russian forces continue to attack on other sections of the front, and the long-term consequences of the "Vivaldi" operation are yet to be assessed.

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