Moscow's strategy: weakening the West instead of territorial conquests
Former Latvian Defence Minister Artis Pabriks told journalists that the Kremlin's fundamental goal is not to seize the Baltic states or Poland, but to destroy the structure of the North Atlantic Alliance and generally weaken Western states.
According to Pabriks, living next to a state like Russia requires constant readiness for the worst-case scenarios. He emphasised the importance of taking into account the historical experience of the Baltic region, where such an invasion has already occurred, and highlighted the desire to avoid a repetition of such events.
"Especially given our history in the Baltics, where we have already experienced such an invasion. We do not want it to happen again. And this forces us to prepare for everything. But, having said that, I must also say that the main idea, perhaps, in the Kremlin, in Putin's mind, in the Russian elite, if one can call it that, is not to conquer Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania or Poland. I think it is very important for them that an organisation like NATO simply collapses," Pabriks explained.
The economic logic of aggression
The former defence minister explained that it is important for the Kremlin that the West and Europe find themselves in a worse position than Russia itself. He pointed out that the Russian economy accounts for only 2-3% of the global economy, meaning the country lacks the capacity to build up its own strength for the purpose of global influence. Instead, it can worsen the situation for other players.
"Because Russia itself is only 2-3% of the world economy. And it cannot build up its own forces to influence global politics, but it can worsen the situation for others. In other words, if you have no cows, and your neighbour has three, then you need to get rid of one or two - and you will feel better," he believes.
Global escalation
Pabriks also noted that Russia will continue to escalate the conflict. In his observations, this process is directed not only against the Baltic states but also encompasses all of Europe and the world at large. The former minister added that Moscow strikes where it sees an opportunity to do so.
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